Monday, July 26, 2010
Economy Slowing Says Calculated Risk
Sunday, July 25, 2010
Specifically, What Should Be Done For Jobs?
If anyone had any doubt that something far more dramatic must be done, listen to former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan. He warned Sunday against further stimulus because “we are in a recovery, and I think it would be a mistake to say the September numbers alter that significantly.” Greenspan has turned into an inverse soothsayer. After his cataclysmic error about where the economy was headed before the meltdown, his views about the future should be carefully noted as being the exact opposite of what's likely to be in store.
The economy may be in a technical recovery but this is not a real recovery and the "green shoots" or "positive signs" that Wall Street cheerleaders love to shout about are phantoms of their ever-optimistic imaginations. The stimulus is working but it is far from adequate. Before the stimulus, we were losing more than 500,000 jobs a month. Now that 40 percent of the stimulus has been spent, we are losing more than 250,000 jobs a month.
What to do? With the debt ceiling approaching and the gravitational pull of the 2010 elections increasing, the White House can't go back to Congress with a formal bill to enlarge the stimulus package. Four simpler moves would be to:
(1) Use existing authority under both the stimulus package enacted earlier this year and the nefarious TARP bailout fund -- extending and combining them into a fund to make up for state and local cuts in public school budgets, childrens' health, public health (we need workers to administer swine flu vaccine) and public transportation. Instead of bailing out banks and giant automakers, we should switch to bailing out public services that average people need.
(2) Propose a one-year payroll tax holiday on the first $20,000 of income. Republicans as well as Blue Dog Dems could go along with this, and it would be a highly progressive tax cut since 80 percent of Americans pay more in payroll taxes than they do in income taxes.
(3) Give small businesses a "new jobs tax credit" for every net new job created over the next year. Granted, under normal circumstances this sort of jobs credit doesn't have much effect, and it's difficult to separate hires that would have happened anyway from net new ones. But we're not in normal circumstances; small businesses, which are responsible for most new jobs, still aren't hiring. They need a boost.
(4) Dramatically expand the Small Business Administration's lending programs and have the Fed buy up the SBA's debt. Big banks are not lending to small businesses. TARP has been an utter failure in this regard. The SBA and the Fed should circumvent them and help small businesses get the capital they need, so they can start hiring again.
The politics of these four steps aren't difficult. It would be hard to get a new stimulus package through Congress, but no member who's up for reelection next year when unemployment is likely to be in double digits wants to be accused by rivals of voting against steps to help small businesses, public schools, childrens' health, and average working people who need a tax cut.
Saturday, July 24, 2010
Who's Paying For Your Fix?
by Kate Duncan
May/Jun 2003 Issue
Unless your morning latte was a fair trade blend, it probably cost more than what the farmer who picked the beans earns in a day.
Conventional coffee prices are at their lowest in a century, even below the cost of production. Farmers have been leaving the fruit to rot on the tree, pulling the kids out of school, abandoning the family land and pouring into the cities to find non-existent work. Thats why, as the most heavily traded commodity after oil, and the most common beverage after water, coffee is a major focus of the fair trade movement.
If your morning latte was a fair trade brew, it means the person who farmed the beans is earning enough to support his family. This is all well and good, but the way fair trade is usually explained - with prices, numbers and statistics - ignores its lasting benefits. The true point of fair trade is the cultural, communal, and environmental stability it bolsters.
A farmer who sells through fair trade is a member of a cooperative that is a vehicle for community empowerment. And not just a neighborhood watch: The people typically organized via fair trade are those whom the free market has filtered to the lowest economic stratum. Rather than maneuvering them into a position where theyre forced to take what they can get, fair trade recognizes farmers as equal partners, a platform from which they can command more control over their business and lives.
'Fair trade is a different kind of business relationship between the producer and buyer, which has been an inspiration to help these communities pull together instead of caving to the pressure of all the things trying to blow them apart,' says Monika Firl. Monika heads up producer relations for Cooperative Coffees, and as such, led half a dozen coffee roasters and me (as a grateful representative of Idyll Development Foundation, one of Cooperative Coffees funders) on a buying trip to farmers co-ops in Nicaragua, Guatemala, and Mexico in February, where we were able to see the effect for ourselves. [Clamor]
Friday, July 23, 2010
Woohoo! I made my first $0.10!
If you visit the website you'll see this at the end of each post:
starting with my post from last week. (For people reading this on an RSS reader: there's a link to the tipping button at the end of the post. The company that created the tipping system still needs to figure out how to "embed the button" in the RSS feed. There's also a permanent link near the top right corner of www.econweekly.com.)
This is a service provided by tipjoy and makes it significantly easier to tip the creators of online content. It is more convenient than the "tip jars" that blogs and websites have used so far.
Felix Salmon and Aaron Schiff explain how it works. Here is tipjoy's FAQ.
Basically, the first time you want to give a tip you enter your e-mail address. Tipjoy will later request that you confirm your account, and they'll add the tip to your tab. The amount of the tip depends on what the tipped person specified. It can be $0.05, $0.10, $0.25 or $0.50.
You can pay your tab at any time, in amounts no smaller than $5 (you can have a credit and deduct the tips you give from there). Tip owners can collect their money as soon as they have a $5 balance in paid tips. For now, tipjoy can only pay in the form of gift cards at Amazon or by giving the money to charities. In the future, it looks like they'll be able to pay cash. Oh, and they keep 3% of earned tips.
When will this take off? There need to be enough websites that receive tips to make it worthwhile for readers to sign up for the service. For authors, there need to be enough tippers around to make it worthwhile to insert the buttons. On both sides, however, transactions costs are small.
My main concern is that users will neglect to pay their accumulated tab. Because the payment of individual tips is deferred (the tipper's credit card is not charged immediately) it's easy to imagine that tippers can accumulate unpaid tips and postpone the actual payment indefinitely. If tipjoy has no way to enforce the payment, the tipping never actually happens.
We'll see. For the moment, I'm letting the (still virtual) dough roll in, one dime at a time.
(Clicking that button gives $0.10 to Francisco.) Join tipjoy! How does tipping work?
Thursday, July 22, 2010
More Americans Expecting Recession in The Next Year
The economic mood took a sharp turn for the worse over the past month, with 40 percent of Americans expecting a recession in the next year, according to a Reuters / Zogby poll released Wednesday.
That was a big rise from a month earlier, when 31 percent of the likely voters polled predicted a recession. The darker mood came as mounting concerns about housing and credit markets pounded Wall Street, and oil prices approached $100 per barrel.
That was a big rise from a month earlier, when 31 percent of the likely voters polled predicted a recession. The darker mood came as mounting concerns about housing and credit markets pounded Wall Street, and oil prices approached $100 per barrel. (CNBC 1/21/07)
Recession times are increasingly being expected. The coming holiday spending season will likely provide important clues to where consumer spending is headed. Consumer spending is about 70% of the US's GDP. Consumer spending is a key factor in a forecasting a recession.
Wednesday, July 21, 2010
More Americans Expecting Recession in The Next Year
The economic mood took a sharp turn for the worse over the past month, with 40 percent of Americans expecting a recession in the next year, according to a Reuters / Zogby poll released Wednesday.
That was a big rise from a month earlier, when 31 percent of the likely voters polled predicted a recession. The darker mood came as mounting concerns about housing and credit markets pounded Wall Street, and oil prices approached $100 per barrel.
That was a big rise from a month earlier, when 31 percent of the likely voters polled predicted a recession. The darker mood came as mounting concerns about housing and credit markets pounded Wall Street, and oil prices approached $100 per barrel. (CNBC 1/21/07)
Recession times are increasingly being expected. The coming holiday spending season will likely provide important clues to where consumer spending is headed. Consumer spending is about 70% of the US's GDP. Consumer spending is a key factor in a forecasting a recession.
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
Why the Dow Broke 10,000, and Why You Should Still Watch Your Wallet
1. Corporate earnings are up -- mainly because companies have been cutting costs. Payrolls comprise 70 percent of most companies' costs, which means companies have been slashing jobs. In the end, this is a self-defeating strategy. If workers don't have jobs or are afraid of losing them, they won't buy, and company profits will disappear.
2. Federal borrowing has filled the gap that consumers and businesses created when the latter began to reduce their debt. Federal debt, in other words, has kept the economy from tanking. Can't keep up forever, though.
3. With such horrid employment numbers, Wall Street figures the Fed will keep interest rates low for some time, and continue to flood the economy with money. That's good news for the Street because it means money stays cheap -- and with cheap money the Street can make lots of bets on almost everything under the sun and moon. As a result, the Street's earnings are way up. But this, too, is temporary. At some point the Fed is going to worry about inflation and a falling dollar.
4. Investors of all stripes want to get in early and ride the wave. Pension funds, mutual funds, and other institutional investors figure the bull market has more oomph in it because, well, other investors will jump in. Think Ponzi scheme. Nice for now, but watch out if you're one of the last in.
In other words, this is all temporary fluff, folks. Anyone who hasn't learned by now that there's almost no relationship between the Dow and the real economy deserves to lose his or her shirt in the Wall Street casino.