Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Sugar Giants Shove Their Sweetener

by Chris Tenove


Jul/Aug 2003 Issue


What does anybody know about the sugar industry? The people who put the frosting on the frosted flakes keep a low profile and are happy when folks are too busy eating to ask a lot of questions. Now, though, a dust-up with the World Health Organization (WHO) has flushed them into the limelight, where they're pitting profits against public health.


The conflict was inflamed by a new set of dietary guidelines drawn from two years of research by the WHO and the UN Food and Agricultural Organization. The guidelines are part of a worldwide strategy to tame the swelling epidemic of obesity, diabetes, osteoporosis and cardiovascular diseases. One recommendation is that free sugars (i.e. sugar added to foods) should make up no more than 10 percent of our daily caloric intake. The sugar lobby reacted to that suggestion like a toddler asked to hand back his Halloween booty...


'It was particularly stupid for them to put in writing that they're going to try to get Congress to take away WHO's money,' says Michael Jacobsen, executive director of the Center for Science in the Public Interest. 'It gave consumers a chance to see the kind of bullying that is usually done behind closed doors.' [Adbusters]

Monday, June 29, 2009

The fiscal stimulus: ineffective or wrong?

The latest economic data show that output growth has weakened and unemployment is creeping up. The government is worried, with good reason, that the economy is going through a pronounced slowdown, perhaps even a recession. To limit the damage, Congress yesterday approved a battery of fiscal measures. By my reckoning, however, the plan will at best provide a short-lived nudge to consumption, but not employment; at worst, it’ll do nothing.

Starting in May, the government will send $600 checks to individuals ($1,200 for couples and an extra $300 for each child). People who earn too little to pay income taxes, but make more than $3,000, will receive a $300 payment. Payments will total $106 billion and will add to the budget deficit.

Cash outlays are supposed to boost private consumption expenditures and accelerate overall growth. $106b may seem a small stimulus for a $14 trillion economy, but the payments are expected to have a “multiplier effect”: higher demand will prompt businesses to hire more workers, and increased employment will further stimulate private consumption, which in turn will induce more hiring. The process continues ad infinitum. The outlays, therefore, can have a final effect on aggregate demand that is many times bigger than the initial stimulus —hence the name “multiplier.”

The effectiveness of the measure hinges on two factors. First, the fraction of the government outlays that will be spent immediately. According to Bruce Bartlett, previous experiences with tax rebates in 1975 and 2001 indicate that it's small. The recent study by Elmendorf and Furman indicates that it's a 50 percent.

The second requirement, which has received less attention, is that businesses will respond to the initial surge in demand by hiring new workers. If they don’t, then the fiscal package will have no second-round impact on demand, and the stimulus to consumption will total just $50b.

Because the first two quarters of 2008 will be marked by considerable uncertainty about the course of the economy in the medium term, the announcement of the fiscal plan will not have an immediate effect on hiring. Manufacturers may ratchet up their inventories, in anticipation of the small jolt of demand in May, but they will do so by using overtime and temp workers, rather than hiring permanent employees. In the services sector, we won’t see any change in employment until the late spring, and even then employers will similarly meet spikes in demand with overtime hours and temp workers, at least initially. If, come June, forecasts have improved, we may see employment pick up over the fall. But by then the effect of the government checks will have played out. In conclusion, the fiscal package won’t provide any significant boost to employment.

A less obvious reason to reject the stimulus is that the slowdown in aggregate demand is necessary, even healthy. Most of the growth experienced between 2002 and 2006 was based on low interest rates, over-valued real estate, and loose lending standards.

Chart 1, from a story by Michael Mandel at BusinessWeek, tells it all. Mandel estimates that, “if consumer spending had tracked the overall economy over the past decade as it has in the past, Americans today would be spending about $600 billion less a year. The extra spending has amounted to a total of about $3 trillion since 2001.” That extra spending was financed with debt. Quite literally, Americans were borrowing their prosperity from the future —not exactly a sustainable growth path.

Chart 1 (left) and 2 (right). Click to enlarge.

Sunday, June 28, 2009

Recession Fears Grow

Reuters reports that "Unsold goods are piling up in warehouses as the housing meltdown and soaring oil prices strain consumers, raising fears that already glum fourth-quarter growth prospects may tip toward recession."

"The sluggishness is apparent in the retail sector, where 70 percent of chain stores posted weaker-than-expected October sales results, according to research firm Retail Metrics.

"We expect the challenging retail environment to continue for the foreseeable future," Mike Ullman, chairman and chief executive officer of department store chain J.C. Penney (JCP.N: Quote, Profile, Research), said last week. He added that the company would keep inventory levels tight through 2008."

Respected economist Nouriel Roubini writes "Any recession call for the U.S. is clearly dependent on US consumption faltering. Since residential investment is only 5% of even a worsening housing recession cannot – by itself – trigger an economy-wide recession. Rather, since private consumption is over 70% of aggregate demand a sharp and persistent slowdown in consumption growth – below 1% or even negative - is necessary to trigger a full blown recession

Saturday, June 27, 2009

The Auto Bailout Is Going Off the Road

GM just announced it was laying of 21,000 more of its workers, as a means of assurring the Treasury Department the company is worthy of more bailout money. A Treasury official was quoted as saying approvingly that the goal is a "slimmed-down" GM.

What? Having General Motors or Chrysler cut tens of thousands of jobs in order to be eligible for a government bailout reminds me of "saving" Vietnam by bombing it to smithereens. Aren't we giving these companies billions of taxpayer dollars to save jobs? If not, we're just transferring money from taxpayers to GM and Chrysler bondholders and shareholders.

I agree with those who say the United States needs an auto industry. But there's no point spending tens of billions of taxpayer dollars for an auto industry that's a tiny fragment of what it was before. We could achieve that objective by doing nothing.

Besides, as I've said before, the "American auto industry" shouldn't be defined as auto companies whose headquarters are in the United States. The true "American auto industry" is Americans who make automobiles. At the rate the Big Three are shrinking even as they’re bailed out, foreign automakers with American plants may soon employ more Americans than the Big Three do. The Big Three have gone global anyway. A Pontiac G8 shipped by GM from Australia contains far less American labor than a BMW X5 assembled in the United States. General Motors' European subsidiaries include Opel and Saab. Ford also has operations around the world. It even owns Volvo.

The purpose of any auto bailout ought to be to help American auto workers keep their jobs, regardless of whether they work for GM or Toyota or anyone else. Or if they lose their jobs, help them get new ones that pay almost as well. Yet we’re doing exactly the opposite: We're paying GM and Chrysler billions of taxpayer dollars to keep them afloat while they cut tens of thousands of American jobs and slash wages. There's no good reason why taxpayers should foot any of this bill unless the Big Three agree to keep their workers employed while they try to turn themselves around.

Friday, June 26, 2009

There Was a Reason They Called It... The Casino Economy

by Thomas Croft


02 Jul 03


In the last three years, a 'perfect storm' of rising energy costs, record consumer and corporate debt and massive trade and current account deficits joined with unsustainable investment practices, and resulted in an economic collapse. The first recession since 1929 to be primarily caused by over-investment, these 'collateral damage' investing schemes-in overseas boondoggles and sweatshops, extreme mergers, absurd dot-coms and derivative scams-all came home to roost. Enron used all of these investment tricks and more. The corruption scandals of 2001-2 completed the melt-down. Now, the world is probably in a double-dip recession, thanks partly to the scandal and continuing international disruptions.


The problem with casino bets and Russian Roulette is that somebody always loses. [CounterPunch]

Thursday, June 25, 2009

EZer taxes

Imagine if you didn’t have to file a tax return. Imagine if, come T-day, the only thing you needed to do to comply with your tax obligations was to sign a form and mail it. And imagine if this could be done without changing a comma of the tax code. This is not a pipe dream—millions of citizens in different parts of the world already do it.

Austan Goolsbee, professor at the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business and head economic adviser to Barack Obama, is proposing to let the Internal Revenue Service, America’s tax man, put together drafts of individual tax returns and mail them to taxpayers. Experts know the system as “Tax Agency Reconciliation” (TAR). Goolsbee has had the good sense to re-baptize as “Simple Return.”

Tax collection agencies receive all the information they need to fill out the returns of many taxpayers. By law, employers and financial institutions send the data to them. The time spent by filers collecting statements, putting the numbers in the right boxes of the tax form, figuring out the standard deductions and exemptions, and calculating the tax bill--not to mention the fees paid to tax prepapers--are thus a waste.

Sweden and Denmark use the system. In Spain, with seven years of TAR experience, some filers can even request and confirm their pre-filled tax returns by sending a text message. Some Spaniards don’t even have to sacrifice precious TV time: they can do their taxes through their interactive, digital TV sets. (I encourage readers who know of other countries in the EZer Club to let me know in the comments or by e-mail. I’d like to make a list. If you respond, please specify whether the country does TAR or exact withholding.)

Tuesday, June 23, 2009

Will Ken Lewis Get Canned, and Will Americans Have a Say in the Corporations We Now Own?

I don't know whether Bank of America shareholders will oust Ken Lewis from his chairmanship this week. I don't know if Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner will eventually do it, either. What really worries me is I don't know who would actually be responsible for doing the deed, or by what criteria.

When it comes to keeping top corporate executives in line we usually entrust the job to shareholders -- or, as a practical matter, boards of directors that are supposed to represent shareholders' interests. When it comes to keeping top public servants in line we generally trust voters -- or, as a practical matter, the elected officials who represent them. But when, as now, the public has committed large amounts of its money to particular companies in the private sector, we're in a quandary.

The $45 billion we've sent to the Bank of America should give the public some say over whether Mr. Lewis remains in his job because he is now accountable to us as well as to his shareholders. But to which group should he be more accountable?

And: Is Mr. Lewis's main job still to make money for his shareholders, or does he now have a higher public responsibility to lend more money to Main Street? Was that public responsibility also paramount last fall when Federal Reserve Chief Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson told Mr. Lewis to proceed with the Merrill-Lynch merger -- and when, according to Mr. Lewis's sworn testimony, he believed they didn't want him to disclose Merrill-Lynch's financial losses to B of A shareholders or anyone else?

It's not even clear who represents us as members of the public. Next month, AIG holds its annual shareholders meeting. Are you attending?

Maybe you should. The $170 billion we've committed to AIG so far amounts to nearly 80% of its shares. Some private shareholders are pushing for a vote to oust an AIG board member and to further restrict executive pay. But these dissident shareholders represent only a slice of the 20% of AIG's private owners.

AIG has three public trustees, each of whom is being paid $100,000 a year. Should they vote with the dissidents? There's no way to know, because the public trustees have no charter or mission statement to guide them, and they don't seem to report to anyone, either.

The question of public representation keeps growing. Now that our loans to Citigroup have been turned into common stock, you and I and other members of the public are poised to become Citigroup's biggest shareholder, holding about 36% of its voting shares. But who represents us, and how should they vote?

The Obama administration apparently wants to do more of these debt-for-equity swaps. They're a means to get more capital to the banks without returning to Congress to ask for more money -- which Congress would be very reluctant to provide. But the swaps also expose the public to more risk. At least loans have to be repaid.

Share prices, as we've seen, sometimes go down. Yet without a means for representing the public's interest in the governance system of these banks, we can only rely on the Treasury secretary to keep a watchful eye over the ongoing decisions of every bank. That's unrealistic.

Even if our public interests were being represented, it's not clear exactly what they are beyond getting repaid or possibly making a bit of a profit. Presumably taxpayer dollars are being committed because of some larger public purpose. Yet companies are designed to make profits, not to fulfill public responsibilities.

Suppose the government, representing the public, instructs the Wall Street banks it now controls to lend more money to Main Street. But top bank executives believe they can better raise share prices by using the money for new investments, bigger dividends, or to lure and retain "talent?" The executives have a duty to do what the government tells them to do, but they have an even larger fiduciary responsibility to their shareholders to raise share prices.

Suppose the government instructs AIG to clean up its balance sheet, but AIG's executives think they can make more money by inventing new off-balance-sheet derivatives? The executives' primary job is to make money for their shareholders. The fact that the public now owns 80% of AIG doesn't change that.

Suppose we tell General Motors Corp. -- about to become partly ours -- to shift its fleet to more fuel-efficient cars. Yet its executives know that as long as gas prices are low, Americans remain infatuated with highly profitable SUVs and pickup trucks? GM executives would have a perfect right, if not a duty, to disregard what we as citizens tell them to do in favor of what shareholders want them to do.

Democratic capitalism entails two systems by which people with significant power are held accountable. One is capitalism, by which companies and their executives are accountable to the market. The other is democracy, by which public agencies and their leaders are accountable to voters. Americans may disagree about how much we want of one or the other, but most people understand we need both systems of accountability. When we confuse the two, we run the danger that people with great power may escape accountability altogether.

That's the problem right now. Bank of America's Ken Lewis is fully accountable to no one. AIG's public trustees have no charter or public mission to guide them. GM is trying to satisfy the Treasury and its shareholders simultaneously, and is doing neither very well. Even as the public takes larger ownership stakes in big Wall Street banks, the public has no systematic means of expressing its growing interest, whatever it is.

Perhaps government had no business meddling in the private sector to begin with. AIG, the big banks and the auto companies should have been forced to work out their problems with their creditors, or else be put into temporary receivership until their profitable units or nonperforming loans could be sold off. Perhaps any company that's judged too big to fail is too big, period. Antitrust laws should have been used to break these giants up before they got so big.

These arguments may be relevant to the recent past and possibly to the future, but they're beside the point right now. The immediate challenge is to sort out public from private responsibilities and to create clearer lines of accountability.

At the least, when government takes an ownership stake in a company, the pubic should be represented on that companies' board of directors in direct proportion to the size of its stake. Those public directors should be appointed by the president. In exercising their oversight function, they should seek guidance from the president and his top economic officials. And their votes on critical issues before the board -- such as whether to fire Ken Lewis -- should be made public.

Monday, June 22, 2009

Sunday, June 21, 2009

Friday, June 19, 2009

How Obama Can Succeed in the Next Hundred Days and Beyond

Before Inauguration Day, President-elect Barack Obama said he wanted to hit the ground running. Instead, he hit the ground sprinting and hasn't stopped.

Consider: A $787 billion stimulus package. A 10-year budget including universal health insurance and a cap-and-trade system to combat global warming. Subsidies to help distressed homeowners stay in their homes. Public-private partnerships to clean up the big banks. A bailout of the auto companies. New regulations to clean up Wall Street. A G-20 meeting to harmonize global economic policies. A proposal to regulate greenhouse gas emissions. A thaw in relations with Cuba and Venezuela. Overtures to Iran. A start to immigration reform. Even a dramatic rescue from pirates.

And this is just the first 100 days.

He also has done this without breaking a sweat. Obama is the serene center of the cyclone - exuding calm when most Americans are petrified about paying the monthly bills, offering assurance when everyone in the world is worried about loose nukes falling into the wrong hands.

All this activity has made the right angry and the left uneasy. But a whopping 65 percent of Americans think highly of him. And no president since John F. Kennedy has received such an enthusiastic welcome around the globe. By almost any measure, his presidency so far has been a triumph. (I give him only a C-plus on his economic policies so far, but that's mainly because of a provisional F on the bank bailout. See below.)

Yet Obama's success has rested on several delicate balancing acts. Whether he continues to succeed will depend on how well he shifts his balance in the months ahead.

Short-term or long-term economics?

The stimulus and bank bailouts have required the government to pump almost $1.5 trillion into the economy and the Federal Reserve Board to dramatically expand the money supply. This makes sense in the short term. With almost 1 out of 6 Americans either unemployed or underemployed - and consumers and businesses still tightening their belts - government has to be the spender of last resort. But as the economy recovers, Obama will have to rein in government deficits. If he does this too early, he risks prolonging the deep recession. Yet if he waits too long, he risks wild inflation.

Progressive vision or conservative governing?

Obama's 10-year budget presents the most ambitious and progressive vision of any president since FDR. But when it come to governing, Obama has been cautious and incremental. His stimulus was smaller than even conservative economist Martin Feldstein recommended. He has been unwilling to take over the banks. He won't push Congress on the Employee Free Choice Act. His mortgage relief program is modest. He doesn't want to prosecute CIA torturers. Yet if he wants to be a transformative president, he's got to move boldly. Universal health insurance will be his first big test.

Dominance of domestic or foreign policy?

So far Obama has focused on the home front, as he should, given the economy's plunge. But he's confronting a major foreign-policy challenge in Pakistan. And other challenges are emerging in Iran, North Korea, Russia, China and stateless regions of the world. So the big question here is whether foreign policy will come to define his presidency, notwithstanding his domestic ambitions. Presidents don't have much control over this. FDR's first two terms were defined by the Great Depression; his last was dominated by World War II. Lyndon Johnson wanted to create the Great Society but got bogged down in Vietnam. George W. Bush didn't know that his administration would be defined by Iraq.

Policy emerging from contending arguments or strong "czars"?

At first it looked as if Obama was hiring a "team of rivals" who would battle out hard policy problems. This management style allows a president to hear and consider contrary points of view, but it can also be chaotic. Yet Obama seems to be opting for strong White House "czars" instead, such as Lawrence Summers on the economy, Carol Browner on the environment and Rahm Emanuel on politics. This approach saves presidential time and focuses responsibility, but it can suppress contrary views. And it's often those contrary views that presidents need to hear to avoid major errors.

Working with Republicans or taking them on?

By temperament and inclination, Obama prefers to reach across the aisle and court Republican support. Yet so far this tactic has been notably unsuccessful. Republicans have moved almost in lockstep against him. They're already gearing up for the 2010 midterms, staging anti-tax rallies and laying the foundation for a major assault on his presidency. They fantasize about repeating the coup Newt Gingrich pulled off in November 1994. At some point before then, Obama will have to take off the gloves.

Making nice to Wall Street or kicking its butt?

Almost $600 billion has been poured into big Wall Street banks with nothing to show for it. They're still not lending to Main Street, still paying their top executives princely sums, and still issuing dividends and looking for acquisition targets. Yet apart from a few rhetorical blasts at a few Wall Street executives, Obama has so far shown remarkable solicitude to the banks because he thinks he needs their cooperation to get credit moving again. At some point, though, he'll have to get tough.


So far Obama has found a workable balance in all these domains. But all require increasingly fancy footwork, and some rebalancing will be needed. The central question for the next 100 days is how deftly he finds new footing.

Thursday, June 18, 2009

Wednesday, June 17, 2009

On college endowments

According to a study released yesterday by the National Association of College and University Business Officers (NACUBO), the endowment fund of Harvard University is worth $34.6 billion, a 19.8% percent higher than a year ago. 76 colleges and universities sit on endowments over $1b. Even more impressively, almost every one of the 733 institutions analyzed reports a double-digit increase in the value of its fund. (Look up the endowment of your alma mater here.)

Chart 1 (click to enlarge)

Tuesday, June 16, 2009

Nouriel Roubini: "clear by now that a severe U.S. recession is inevitable in next few months."

Nouriel Roubini, a leading economist at New York University, is now saying that a US Recession is almost here:
"It is increasingly clear by now that a severe U.S. recession is inevitable in next few months. Those of us who warned for the last 12 months about a combination of a worsening housing recession, a severe credit crunch and financial meltdown, high oil prices and a saving-less and debt-burdened consumers being on the ropes causing an economy-wide recession were repeatedly rebuffed the consensus view about a soft landing given the presumed resilience of the US consumer."

"But the evidence is now building that an ugly recession is inevitable."
Roubini is a smart economist who often goes against the consensus view.

Monday, June 15, 2009

Where Government Spending Should be Trimmed -- And Why It's Necessary to Fast-Track Universal Health Care

It's no accident that as Congress returns this week from its two-week recess and begins debate on the $3.5 trillion budget plans for the fiscal year starting in October -- which may or may not include a provision that fast-tracks Obama's health care proposal by allowing it to pass the Senate with a mere majority -- the President has summoned his cabinet for a first meeting, at which he'll call for more cuts in domestic spending.

Symbolism counts in Washington, and Obama's request that his cabinet officers come up with $100 million in spending cuts will be played up by the White House as the beginning of a major effort to trim unnecessary government spending. It's part of the President's effort to reach out to Republicans (and calm the nerves of "blue-dog" Democrats) worried about all the money the Administration has spent and still wants to spend -- $787 billion on the stimulus, $700 billion committed to the bank and auto bailouts, and, most importantly, $3.5 trillion for the next ten years, including universal health care. Throw in the cost of a cap-and-trade system to control climate change and you're talking big money.

But Obama would be mistaken to take more than symbolic steps at this point. The economy is still in a depression because consumers and businesses won't or can't spend, and exports are dead because the rest of the world is in even worse shape. Government spending on a large scale is necessary now, and will be next year as well.

Over the longer term, Obama must be careful not to put entitlement programs on the chopping block as part of a "grand bargain" to elicit Republican support for health care and cap-and-trade. Social Security is not in dire straights; it can be made flush for the next 75 years by ever-so-slightly lifting the ceiling on the portion of income subject to Social Security payroll taxes (and if Democrats are reluctant to do that on incomes over $100,000, then they could do so on incomes over $250,000).

Medicaid and Medicare are in trouble because health care costs are rising so fast, which argues for health-care reform rather than cuts in these important programs. Yet if health-care reform has any prayer of controlling the rising tide of health care costs, the plan must allow beneficiaries to opt into a public insurance plan -- something Republicans and the health-care establishment are determined to fight. So it's critically important that the Senate wrap health care into a reconciliation bill that can be enacted by a majority vote in the Senate.

Obama should fast-track health care and stop trying to court Republicans. Every House Republican and all but three Senate Republicans voted against the stimulus; all Republicans in both houses voted against the budget. During the recess they hosted "tea parties" claiming that Americans are over-taxed. Over the weekend, House minority leader John Boehner called the idea of carbon-induced climate change "almost comical."

Republicans are already off and running toward the midterm elections of 2010, even starting to run ads against House Democrats in close districts. They seem hell bent on on becoming a tiny, whacky minority -- the party that denies evolution, denies global warming, denies Americans need a major overhaul of health care, and denies the economy needs anything more than a major tax cut to get it moving again.

Sunday, June 14, 2009

Friday, June 12, 2009

Thursday, June 11, 2009

A Short Citizen's Guide to Kooks, Demagogues, and Right-Wingers On Tax Day

No one likes to pay taxes, so tax day typically attracts a range of right-wing Republicans, kooks, and demagogues, all of whom tell us how awful we have it. Herewith a short citizen's guide (that is, a citizen's guide that's short rather than a guide for short citizens) responding to the predictable charges:

1. "Americans pay too much in taxes." Wrong: The United States has the lowest taxes of all developed nations.

2. "The rich pay too much! The top ten percent of income earners pay over 72 percent of all income taxes!" Misleading: The main reason the rich pay such a large percent is they've become so much richer than the bottom 90 percent in recent years. If you look at what they pay as individuals -- the percent of their incomes over and above the highest rate below them -- you'll see a steady decline over the years. When Republican Dwight Eisenhower was president, the marginal rate on the highest earners was 91 percent (after deductions and tax credits, closer to 50 percent); by 1980 it was still up there, at 70 percent (an effective rate of closer to 45 percent); under Bill Clinton, it was 38 percent (an effective rate closer to 28 percent).

Look at the after-tax earnings of families and you'll see what's really going on. Between 1980 and 2000, the after-tax earnings of famlies at the top rose more than 150 percent, while the after-tax earnings of families in the middle rose about 10 percent. The Bush tax cuts of 2001 and 2003 raised the after-tax incomes of most Americans by a bit over 1 percent -- but raised the after-tax incomes of millionaires by 4.4 percent.

3. "The bottom 60 percent pay only 3.3 percent of the taxes!" Misleading again. Most Americans are paying more in sales taxes than they ever have. Property taxes have also been rising at a steady clip. And Social Security taxes have also risen (thanks to the Greenspan Commission), while earnings over about $100,000 aren't subject to Social Security taxes. So-called "sin" taxes (mostly beer and cigarettes) have also skyrocketed. All of these taxes take a bigger bite out of the paychecks of people with lower incomes than they do people with higher incomes.

4. "Obama is raising your taxes!" Wrong. Obama is cutting taxes for 95 percent of Americans, by about $400 per person a year -- not a whopping tax cut, to be sure, but not a tax increase by any stretch. Only the top 2 percent will have a tax increase, but even this tax increase is modest. Basically, they go back to the rates they were paying under Bill Clinton (their deductions will be limited to 28 percent, which is only fair). And they won't start paying this until 2011 anyway.

5. "The huge debts we're wracking up will cause your taxes to rise!" Wrong again. When it comes to the national debt, as I've said before, the relevant statistic is the ratio of debt to the gross domestic product. The only sure way to bring that debt down and make it manageable in future years is to get the economy growing again -- which requires that, in the short term, the government spend a lot of money (because consumers and businesses won't). In the long term, the biggest source of concern is rising health-care costs. And that's something Obama and Congress are aiming to tackle.

6. "We have a patriotic duty to stand up against Washington taxes!" Just the opposite. We have a patriotic duty to pay taxes. As multi-billionaire Warrent Buffett put it, "If you stick me down in the middle of Bangladesh or Peru or someplace, you'll find out how much this talent is going to product in the wrong kind of soil. I will be struggling thirty years later." President Teddy Roosevelt made the case in 1906 when he argued in favor of continuing the inheritance tax. "The man of great wealth owes a particular obligation to the state because he derives special advantages from the mere existence of government."

An acquaintance from law school, now a partner in one of Washington's biggest and wealthiest law firms, explained to me one day over lunch how he and his partners use tax rules to create offsetting taxable gains and losses, and then allocate the gains to the firm's foreign partners who don't pay taxes in the United States. That way, they keep the losses here and shelter their income abroad. I noticed he had an American flag lapel pin. "You're supporting our troops," I said, referring to his pin. "Yup," he replied, entirely missing my point.

True patriotism isn't cheap. It's about taking on a fair share of the burden of keeping America going.

Wednesday, June 10, 2009

Tuesday, June 9, 2009

Personal bankruptcy and consumption smoothing

The welfare effects of bankruptcy legislation are not correctly understood. Policymakers and the general public think, for the most part, that laws that protect borrowers in the event of default are beneficial to consumers. In practice, however, those laws have negative effects on the households that need credit most — and, ironically, those whom the legislation was intended to protect.

Traditionally, Chapter 7 has been the most popular type of bankruptcy filing. Under that section of the Bankruptcy Code, a filer relinquishes her assets, minus a certain exempted amount, and in return is discharged from her unsecured debt (credit card debt, personal loans, student loans, etc.).

State law sets those exempted amounts. In Illinois, for instance, exemptions are: $7,500 for home equity, $1,200 for motor vehicles, $750 for tools of the trade, and $2,000 for any other generic property. So suppose that you file for bankruptcy in the “Land of Lincoln,” and that you have $20,000 worth of home equity, and a car with a market value of $600. Then you can sell the house and keep $7,500 of the proceeds, and sell your car and keep the $600 (since that’s below the $1,200 limit).

Since 1978, with the passage of the Bankruptcy Reform Act (BRA), there’s also a federal exemption. Some states allow filers to choose between the state and the federal amounts. Obviously, if given the opportunity, filers use whichever is highest.

There is an enormous disparity of bankruptcy exemptions across states, even after accounting for the existence of the federal limits. For example, in 2006 the states of Texas, Florida, Oklahoma, Iowa, Kansas, South Dakota, and the District of Columbia, all allowed for an unlimited homestead exemption. In the states of Ohio and Virginia, at the other extreme, the limit is set at $5,000 (and those states don’t allow for the application of the federal exemption). The map below shows the maximum exemption that a married homeowner could claim in 2003, after combining homestead and non-homestead amounts, and taking the highest of the state and federal limit (where the federal limit is available). The limits also vary over time, although high-exemption states tend to remain the same over the years.

Bankruptcy exemptions under Chapter 7 of the Bankruptcy Code
(in 2003, for a home owner)
Click to enlarge

Monday, June 8, 2009

More Americans Expecting Recession in The Next Year

More Americans are expecting a recession in the next year. Consumers are waking up to the reality that the economy has a significant chance of recession next year.

The economic mood took a sharp turn for the worse over the past month, with 40 percent of Americans expecting a recession in the next year, according to a Reuters / Zogby poll released Wednesday.

That was a big rise from a month earlier, when 31 percent of the likely voters polled predicted a recession. The darker mood came as mounting concerns about housing and credit markets pounded Wall Street, and oil prices approached $100 per barrel.

That was a big rise from a month earlier, when 31 percent of the likely voters polled predicted a recession. The darker mood came as mounting concerns about housing and credit markets pounded Wall Street, and oil prices approached $100 per barrel. (CNBC 1/21/07)


Recession times are increasingly being expected. The coming holiday spending season will likely provide important clues to where consumer spending is headed. Consumer spending is about 70% of the US's GDP. Consumer spending is a key factor in a forecasting a recession.

Sunday, June 7, 2009

Why It Makes No Sense for States to Cut Services and Raise Taxes Now

With the real economy continuing to shrink, and unemployment or underemployment now claiming almost one out of six American workers, the economy will almost surely be more than $1 trillion short of its capacity this year, and another $1 trillion short next year. That means the $787 billion stimulus package covering 2009 and 2010 won't nearly do the trick-- even if every federal dollar of it stimulates $1.5 dollars in private spending (about the most that can be expected). Don't count on the bank bailouts to stimulate much of anything except fat paychecks for bank executives and directors. Unless or until Americans get their jobs back and feel more secure about the future, they won't borrow.

Sinking or vanishing American incomes are also causing tax revenues to drop. That's not much of a problem for the federal government, which can run deficits. But most state governments are required by their state constitutions to balance their budgets. Even though the states will be getting some stimulus money, their revenues are falling even faster.

The result? States continue to cut back vital services. They're chopping K-12 school budgets, whacking after-school programs, cutting back on child health, reducing aid to the homeless, and cutting other social services that are more important now than when the economy is doing well. And when they aren't cutting services, the states are raising taxes. At least ten states are considering major increases in sales or incomes taxes -- including Connecticut, Illinois, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Minnesota, Oregon, Washington, and Wisconsin. California and New York have already instituted multibillion-dollar tax increases that went into effect earlier this year.

All told, state service cuts and likely tax increases will total about $350 billion over 2oo9 and 2010. This is nuts -- exactly the opposite of what government needs to be doing. That $350 billion is a huge fiscal drag on the U.S. economy. It essentially negates almost half of the federal stimulus.

Let's hope the Obama administration returns to Congress soon for a second stimulus -- a large chunk of which should help the states maintain vital services and avoid tax increases, and that Congress heeds the request. (And let's hope the administration makes this pitch to Congress before it tries to get more money for the bailouts of Wall Street, the automakers, life insurers, or any other industry whose bondholders and shareholders should be taking the hit rather than taxpayers.)

Saturday, June 6, 2009

Friday, June 5, 2009

On inflation expectations

With Federal Reserve and government doing their best to stimulate demand, people have started looking at inflation. The worry is that the economy is not as sick as our policymakers think, and so the fiscal and monetary medicines are excessive. Markets disagree.

Expected inflation is an important determinant of future inflation. If the public expects higher inflation, workers demand higher wages, prompting employers to raise the price of their goods, which results in higher actual inflation.

Markets in fixed-income securities provide timely information about inflation expectations. Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) deliver interest and principal payments that are tied to inflation. Payments from regular Treasury notes, on the other hand, are not indexed to inflation. The difference between the yield rates of the two types of securities must be equal to the inflation rate expected by the markets—otherwise there would be an arbitrage opportunity. In practice, because of technical issues, the yield spread is only an approximation to expected inflation, and people call it the break-even inflation (BEI) instead. (More on this below.) From here on I use BEI and “expected inflation” interchangeably.

Because the Treasury has created notes with different maturities, we can use the spread between nominal and TIPS securities to gauge inflation expectations for different horizons. For example, today’s difference between the yield of five-year TIPS and that of five-year nominal notes is approximately equal to the inflation rate expected over the five years starting now (2008-2012).

The Fed is interested in long-term inflation expectations, because in the short term prices are affected by transitory or volatile factors, such as commodity prices. One measure of long-term expectations, which we can also derive from yields, is the five-year, five-year forward rate. That is an approximation to the rate of inflation expected for the five years starting five years from now. Today, that would be the period from 2013 through 2017.

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Chart 1 (click to enlarge)

Thursday, June 4, 2009

Economy Slowing Says Calculated Risk

Great Blogger, Calculated Risk "Clearly the economy is slowing sharply"

Wednesday, June 3, 2009

Why You Should Work for a Hedge Fund

Just because I lost a big chunk of my total retirement savings over the last year doesn't mean I should be upset that 25 hedge-fund managers reaped a total of $11.6 billion during the same interval, according to Institutional Investor's Alpha Magazine -- including $2.5 billion for James Simons of Renaissance Technologies and $2 billion for John Paulson. (To be included on the list, you had to take home more than $75 million.)

I do admit to being irked that some of what these guys earn is taxed at a 15 percent rate because the earnings are treated as capital gains, while I'm just about to be walloped by the Internal Revenue Service come April 15.

But what causes me severe heartburn is that these are exactly the sort of investors Tim Geithner is trying to lure in to buy troubled assets from banks, with an extraordinary offer financed by you and me and other taxpayers: If it turns out the troubled assets are worth more than these guys pay for them, they could make a fortune. If if it turns out the assets are worth less, these guys won't lose a thing because we taxpayers will bail them out. Plus, they get to pick only the highest-rated of the big banks' bad assets and can review them carefully before buying.

What a deal. Why can't you and I get in on this bonanza? Because we're too small. The government will designate only about five big investor funds -- run or owned by the richest of the rich -- as potential buyers. Hedge funds fit the bill perfectly.

There's a beautiful symmetry here. The hedge fund managers who raked in billions last year wouldn't have done nearly as well had taxpayers not bailed out Wall Street to begin with. According to John Taylor, a hedge fund manager who tied for ninth on Alpha's list, many funds would have gone belly-up had the government not acted. "Thank god for the government, because if they hadn't intervened, we wouldn'thave had anybody to trade with," he told the Times.

So you and I and other taxpayers have kept these hedge-fund honchos flush enough to be able to reap the bonanza that Geithner now wants to bestow on them for cleaning up the mess they and others on Wall Street made -- a bonanza to be financed by you and me and other taxpayers, who are taking on all the risk.

I read this morning that Larry Summers earned nearly $5.2 million in the last two years working one day a week for D.E. Shaw, one of the largest hedge funds of all. I can't help admire Larry for sacrificing all the money he could be making now had he not chosen to work for the government.

Tuesday, June 2, 2009

Who's Paying For Your Fix?

by Kate Duncan


May/Jun 2003 Issue


Unless your morning latte was a fair trade blend, it probably cost more than what the farmer who picked the beans earns in a day.


Conventional coffee prices are at their lowest in a century, even below the cost of production. Farmers have been leaving the fruit to rot on the tree, pulling the kids out of school, abandoning the family land and pouring into the cities to find non-existent work. That’s why, as the most heavily traded commodity after oil, and the most common beverage after water, coffee is a major focus of the fair trade movement.


If your morning latte was a fair trade brew, it means the person who farmed the beans is earning enough to support his family. This is all well and good, but the way fair trade is usually explained - with prices, numbers and statistics - ignores it’s lasting benefits. The true point of fair trade is the cultural, communal, and environmental stability it bolsters.


A farmer who sells through fair trade is a member of a cooperative that is a vehicle for community empowerment. And not just a neighborhood watch: The people typically organized via fair trade are those whom the free market has filtered to the lowest economic stratum. Rather than maneuvering them into a position where they’re forced to take what they can get, fair trade recognizes farmers as equal partners, a platform from which they can command more control over their business and lives.


'Fair trade is a different kind of business relationship between the producer and buyer, which has been an inspiration to help these communities pull together instead of caving to the pressure of all the things trying to blow them apart,' says Monika Firl. Monika heads up producer relations for Cooperative Coffees, and as such, led half a dozen coffee roasters and me (as a grateful representative of Idyll Development Foundation, one of Cooperative Coffee’s funders) on a buying trip to farmers’ co-ops in Nicaragua, Guatemala, and Mexico in February, where we were able to see the effect for ourselves. [Clamor]

Monday, June 1, 2009

A bash for confidence indexes

Every month the University of Michigan and the Conference Board conduct a survey of households’ confidence on the state of the economy. Each pollster asks several questions and summarizes the results with an index, which is closely watched for signs of consumer distress. Last November, the Michigan index fell by 4.8 points from October; the Conference Board Index dipped by 7.9 points. Supposedly this is bad news because worried consumers are thrifty consumers. Don’t let the surveys fool you: they are almost complete rubbish — unless you know how to use them.

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